Mark Twain is widely credited with the observation, “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.”
Well, each year about this time, the Farmer’s Almanac is what everybody’s talking about, because the 200-year-old publication is talking about the weather.
Nobody’s doing anything about it, still, but the Farmer’s Almanac is giving us a glimpse into our future weather, which keeps everybody talking.
It’s at this point that the conversation tends to go off the rails, if for no other reason than because the question is asked: The Old Farmer’s Almanac or the New Farmer’s Almanac? So what’s the difference? The “old” Farmer’s Almanac was founded in 1792, and the “new” one came along in 1818. Both endeavor to supply farmers with advance information about the weather and other related topics. So what’s in store for eastern Oklahoma during the next six months?
Both publications basically agree that our part of the world should expect a “calmer, gentler” winter, i.e., mild and dry.
Compared to many recent years, this summer has not been as brutal as some in the past, despite our recent stretch of tripledigit heat indices. Local weather forecasters call for Labor Day weekend to be cooler and wetter, and next week is expected to be milder.
Those in the know have predicted a warmer- than-usual autumn, but highs closer to 80 (do I hear 70s?) are much preferred to temperatures flirting with 100.
If you’ve been wondering if you’ll even need to dig out the coats for the winter, the Old Farmer’s Almanac expects it to be mild and dry throughout the Heartland from the Gulf of Mexico to Canada.
“This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States,” reports Carol Connare, editor in-chief for the Old Farmer’s Almanac. “While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn’t hit so hard. We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter — potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.”
There will be exceptions, of course. Winter rainstorms will leave Florida, the Deep South and southern California soaked. Meanwhile, heavy snowfall is expected in central and southern Appalachia, the western Ohio Valley and the Rockies.
But in eastern Oklahoma, there may be plenty of bleak, gray days this winter, but you may not have to bundle up too much — basically kind of a normal winter for our part of the world.
The coldest periods for Sequoyah County are forecast for — surprise, surprise — late January and early and late February. On the bright side, however, the extreme ice storms and power outages that afflicted the region two years ago are not in the forecast. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, it’s just not in the forecast, which you know how that can go.
And for those who may be dreaming of a white Christmas, looks like you may be disappointed again. A white Valentine’s Day may be on the horizon, however. The Almanac experts say that precipitation will be below normal, so expect it to be drier than average this winter. The best chances for snow are expected in early and late February.
While the next six months are not expected to be a cold-weather enthusiast’s paradise, it’s a pretty good guess that by next summer, Oklahoma temperatures will be back in triple digits.
While battle lines continue to be drawn between the “new” and the “old” Farmer’s Almanac, both rely on long-range predictions, which remain an inexact science,” despite the more-than-200-yearold formula both publications utilize. The forecasts are admittedly broad and general — some prefer the term simplistic — and often read like weather astrology, was easily molded to the reader’s interpretation and usually dependent on the context of the preceding weather conditions.
Traditionally, the Almanac — either one — is about 80% correct, although many believe the accuracy is about 50-50 — about like flipping a coin.
So the Almanac prognostications notwithstanding, it’s possible Will Rogers was right when he remarked, “If you don’t like the weather in Oklahoma, wait a minute, it’ll change.”